Four Myths Busted Super Tuesday

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Hatchet
By Lucas Roebuck

Once again, conventional wisdom gets shredded when people go to vote. I’d invest in crow; it looks like there may be a run on that commodity. Super Tuesday was a real myth buster (not to be confused with a Mitt buster). Here is what the collective wisdom of the voters taught us.

Myth one: Conservatives are sheep who follow whatever there “leaders” say.

That’s right folks. Even though the talking heads of “conservative” radio and Fox News blasted Sen. John McCain and Gov. Mike Huckabee in an unprecedented barrage of negativity, voters didn’t listen. They handed strategic victories to the pair.

If you listen to Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck or other right-wing talking heads (all of whom I do listen to), you may think that conservatives are a monolithic block of people who walk in lock step with each other on every single issue.

Of particular interest were Coulters promise that if the GOP didn’t endorse Mitt Romney, she’d support Sen. Clinton. Say hi to Hillary for me, Ann.

The Super Tuesday dominance by Sen. McCain and Southern surge by Gov. Huckabee (which I predicted last week) proves that conservatives are much more complex. As I have said before, conservatives, based on my observations, seem to fall into three camps: social conservatives, fiscal conservatives and pro-military conservatives (hawks). Most of us conservatives care about all three, but we just have different priorities. For talk radio, immigration is the defining issue, followed by economic policy.

Those are both important issues, but for some of us, protecting the life of unborn children and fighting the war against Islamic jihad is more important. The votes reflected that.

Myth two: Huckabee voters would go for Romney if Huckabee would only get out of the race.

After Huckabee’s fourth place finish in Florida, Gov. Mitt Romney tried to convince the rest of us that Huckabee (who I support), was keeping him from uniting “true” conservatives, i.e. fiscal conservatives with a hard line on immigration. Huckabee was a “spoiler.”

The reality is more likely the other way around, looking at the numbers. In the states that Huckabee won, McCain was second and Romney was third: Alabama, Arkansas Georgia and Tennessee. The notable exception was the West Virginia convention, where McCain and Rep. Ron Paul supporters moved into the Huckabee column to give him the win.

But what about the states that McCain won where Romeny was second? Did Huckabee play a spoiler role? Hardly. Assuming 100 percent of the Huckabee votes would have gone for Romney had Huckbaee dropped out, the former CEO still couldn’t have closed the gap in Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey or New York.

On the other hand, In Oklahoma and Missouri, Romney was clearly a spoiler for Huckabee, where the gaps were a few percentage points between Huckabee (second) and Romney (third). If anyone was thwarting the alleged “collective will” of conservatives, its Romney.

The Huckabee narrative really falls apart when looking at Gallup Poll second-choice data. The USA Today reports, “In our latest USA Today/Gallup poll Huckabee supporters were asked for whom they would vote if the race came down to John McCain or Mitt Romney. The results?  McCain wins over Romney as the second choice of Huckabee voters by more than a 2 to 1 margin, 64 percent to 28 percent.  Indeed, McCain beats Romney 42 percent to 24 percent with Huckabee in the race (Huckabee gets 18percent of the vote, Ron Paul gets 5 percent, and Alan Keyes gets 2 percent).  With a narrowed-down ballot focused just on McCain and Romney (forcing Huckabee voters to choose between the two front-runners), McCain wins 53 percent to 30 percent — a slightly expanded margin.”

Myth: Mike Huckabee destroyed the Republican Party in Arkansas.

Several well-meaning, vocal members of the GOP in Arkansas have sent out the message to would-be-Huckabee voters in other states: Huckbaee destroyed the GOP in Arkansas. Huckabee certainly did infuriate the anti-immigration crowd.

I always contended that when Huckabee was on the ballot, Republicans showed up to vote, and when he wasn’t they lost. Of course, 2006 was a bad year for Republicans all around — but it certainly hurt the Arkansas GOP not to have Huckabee bringing people to the polls that year.

The Arkansas GOP put out a press release Wednesday saying that the GOP turnout in the Super Tuesday Arkansas primary was the largest since at least 1992. What drove that turnout? Even though many conservative and Republican leaders in Arkansas had endorsed other candidates because of trivial disputes with Huckabee, voters turned out for Huckabee. Huckabee won 60 percent of the Arkansas vote. In Arizona, McCain only won 47 percent of his home state. In Massachusetts, Romney barely won half of his home state.

Myth: Without tens of millions of dollars, you can’t be competitive.

I did some pre-Super Tuesday research and found that Huckabee spend around $12/vote, compared to McCain’s $32/vote and Romney’s $77/vote. Romney has spent almost $100 million to stay competitive with Huckabee, who has spent less than $10 million. Money may help the world go around, but it can’t buy you an election.

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